When we started this adventure, we talked to a lot of venture capitalists. Part of my speach 2 years ago was a prediction that television sets were going to start adding internet connectivity.
Well, I was roundly dismissed. Don't get me wrong, these are very smart and connected people, but they were dead wrong.
Some of the reasons I was given -
1. I don't understand the TV manufacturing business. It takes 18 months to bring a set to market and no manufacturer would take that risk.
2. TV's with other stuff built in have never done that well.
3. I was being very naive to think that change could happen that fast.
I eventually had to pull that part from my pitch, go too many negative arguments I could not win.
Well, LG Electronics, Sony, Vizio, Panasonic have all announce TV's with internet connections.
The lesson here is follow your instincts, smart people are often wrong.
Guy Kawasaki has some great examples of experts being wrong
Don’t let the bozos grind you down 2 kinds of bozos:
- The slovenly bozo with no credibility
- The successful bozo, which is the most dangerous since people tend to believe them.
Examples of “dangerous bozosity”:
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”
Western Union dismissed the telephone in 1876
“It’s too far to drive and I don’t see how it can be a business” Guy’s reply to an offer to be CEO of Yahoo. He says it cost him $2bn.
Anyway, as I always say, "Being right is great! That and $1.25 will get you a cup of coffee"
Just don't believe everything people tell you, no how matter how smart they are.
The reason we decided to get into this business was because of the changes we were seeing on the horizon. This work is much to hard and risky if you don't believe in the larger picture. Henry Blodget just wrote a great piece on this.
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